Country risk bottoms out for Argentine asset sub on Wall Street ahead of improving fiscal and business performance

Argentina’s goodies won this miracle with a general increase and a chance to win by less than 1500 points, as well as knowing the fiscal result and trade surplus from February.

Among the lower mayors are AE38 with 5.51%, AE38D, 4.12%; AL39, 4.29%; AL29D, 4.48% and AL30, 2.38%.

Here the result of the fiscal supplementary pension insurance for February (primary and financial) was known, and before the expectation of DNU treatment in the Chamber of Deputies, the good people who paid for their money began a week with generalized subas, in line with operations in emerging markets and the world,” they assure analysts Puente.

Indeed, follow the index that elaborates JP Morgan, I can pay 1496 points. This is a loophole in the tax reporting of United States government bonds with similar sovereign issues from emerging countries, including Argentina. This tax break is being reduced and today is at its lowest level since September 2021.

por su parte Javier Casabal, Fija Renta Estratega de Adcap Gruppo Financiero, assured: “Mainly the question of the risky country as a result of the suba de los bonos is more tied to politics. The market is moving along the levels very optimistically Javier Milea. It’s a real change worth celebrating, given that most investors don’t count on their ability to cut the deficit in just a week.”

Gustavo Ber, Estudio Ber economist, said that the bullish rally owes to “the continuity of a greater appetite for change before the enthusiasm that generates the economic policy of the first months of the management. It is important to say that the economic “hoja de route” is received by positive results from external investors that complement the proposals of local operators”.

Above these last I hinted: “Before you look for political signals before the new Ley Ómnibus y el DNU, given that trading will be required, domestic assets are presented to firms as investors are enthusiastic about the continuity of the economic “hoja de route” of fiscal surveillance, monetary opening and reserve accumulation’.

“It is important to note that these steps are key to supporting the positive expectations that the new professional administration has had among operators from the beginning and it will be key for them to continue to try to counter the stagnation by facing the social humor that must be accompanied by the fall of a better horizon through sacrifice,” he agreed.

Looking at the economic data that motivates the good performance of Argentine companies abroad, it is clear that this Tuesday Indec expanded the February trade exchange, which recorded a surplus of 1,438 million USD, which I believe is up 581% from the positive result. 211 million USD in the same period of 2023.

Moreover, the surplus recorded in the second month of this year doubled the amount in the black, which stood at USD 797 million.

On the other hand, the government achieved a fiscal surplus of USD 338,112 million in February, despite the result the primary was positive at $1,232,525 million. So the tax breaks are accumulating for two consecutive months with an overrun not seen since August 2019.

LCG said: “The basis of the improvement in the fiscal result is fully responsive to the gas adjustment, which is more than 10 times the adjustment, which is reflected in the income affected by the recessionary context and the removal of the 4th category jaw tax (-38% vs. -3% annually in real terms). “.

“Gas adjustment again focused on transfers to provinces and public works with nominal rates of 40%, representing real lows of 85% compared to the previous year. Subsidy costs are reduced to 43% real per year and social benefits are adjusted by 30% (-38% real per year in the case of jubilations and pensions). Operating gas (mainly salaries) is 17% per year in real terms,” ​​they specified.

Further, the consultant projected: “It still raises questions about the social costs of this accelerated fiscal convergence. At the moment, the situation is more prevalent than the motorcycle, and the lack of enforceability of the reforms that the government intends to apply raises doubts about the possibility of maintaining the adjustment over time”.